期刊论文

The analysis of status and influencing factors of China’s corn-importing

中文

武汉轻工大学学报

2095-7386

2022

41

01

77-83

10.3969/j.issn.2095-7386.2022.01.013

湖北省教育厅人文社科重点项目（编号：21D061）；

本校为第一机构

本文先分析我国及世界玉米在生产、消费和贸易方面的现状,梳理可能影响我国玉米进口的因素,后依据2005—2019年,我国与美国、乌克兰、老挝和缅甸之间的玉米贸易数据,并构建我国玉米进口引力模型,探讨影响我国玉米进口的主要因素及其影响方向和影响程度。实证结果表明:出口国的玉米产量、价格优势和我国"一带一路"政策对我国玉米进口有显著促进作用;出口国的经济规模、人口及我国玉米替代品的进口量显著抑制我国玉米进口。我国玉米进口形势短期内不会出现反转,为缓解进口激增,结合实证结果从我国玉米供给和需求方面提出建议。

This article begins with the comparative analysis of the current status of corn production,consumption and international trade between China and the world and the main factors that may affect Chinese corn-importing.Based on Chinese trade data of corn with United States,Ukraine,Laos and Myanmar from 2005 to 2019,the corn-importing gravity model is constructed to explore the main factors affecting Chinese corn-importing and its influencing direction and extent.The empirical results show that the corn output and price advantages of exporting count...