期刊论文

A Theoretical and Empirical Study on the Relationship between Urbanization Levels and the Scale of Local Government Debt

中文

金融经济学研究

1674-1625

2018

33

3

104-115

教育部社会科学基金项目(15YJA790005)

本校为第一机构

采用格兰杰因果关系模型实证分析地方政府债务规模和城镇化水平间的关系，并运用公共经济学理论分析地方政府债务规模与城镇化水平间的内在逻辑关系和作用机制。研究表明，地方政府债务规模是城镇化水平的格兰杰原因，两者存在长期协整关系。在城镇化快速发展过程中，地方政府债务规模扩张是需求作用机制、公共福利作用机制和新城建设的财政机会主义偏好共同作用的结果。因此，中央政府应该实施审慎的地方政府债务政策，约束地方财政机会主义偏好，建立地方政府债券制度，规范地方政府举债融资和债券市场，有效防范、化解地方政府债务风险。

This study uses the Granger causality model to conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between the scale of local government debt and urbanization levels. It further ap- plies public economic theory to analyze the internal logical relationships and mechanisms of action governing the relationship between the scale of local government debt and urbanization levels. The study indicates that the scale of local government debt is a Granger cause of urbanization levels, and that the two exhibit a long-term coordinated relationship. In the process of rapid urban de- velopment, the expanding ...