期刊论文

Jiang, Shui-Hua

英文

Advances in Civil Engineering

1687-8086

2020

2020

1-13

10.1155/2020/8528304

This paper proposes a new sequential probabilistic back analysis approach for probabilistically determining the uncertain geomechanical parameters of shield tunnels by using time-series monitoring data. The approach is proposed based on the recently developed Bayesian updating with subset simulation. Within the framework of the proposed approach, a complex Bayesian back analysis problem is transformed into an equivalent structural reliability problem based on subset simulation. Hermite polynomial chaos expansion-based surrogate models are constructed to improve the computational efficiency of probabilistic back analysis. The reliability of tunneling-induced ground settlements is updated in the process of sequential back analyses. A real shield tunnel project of No. 1 Nanchang Metro Line in China is investigated to assess the effectiveness of the approach. The proposed approach is able to infer the posterior distributions of uncertain geomechanical parameters (i.e., Young’s moduli of surrounding soil layers and ground vehicle load). The reliability of tunneling-induced ground settlements can be updated in a real-time manner by fully utilizing the time-series monitoring data. The results show good agreement with the variation trend of field monitoring data of ground settlement and the post-event investigations. National Natural Science Foundation of China 41867036 41972280 Jiangxi Provincial Natural Science Foundation 2018ACB21017 20181ACB20008 20192BBG70078 Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering Z019019

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This paper proposes a new sequential probabilistic back analysis approach for probabilistically determining the uncertain geomechanical parameters of shield tunnels by using time-series monitoring data. The approach is proposed based on the recently developed Bayesian updating with subset simulation. Within the framework of the proposed approach, a complex Bayesian back analysis problem is transformed into an equivalent structural reliability problem based on subset simulation. Hermite polynomial chaos expansion-based surrogate models are const...