期刊论文

Research on the Regulation Mechanism of China's Grain Trade under the Reform of Supply Side

中文

粮食问题研究

1003-2576

2019

1

18-28,54

10.3969/j.issn.1003-2576.2019.01.005

(18D048):2018年湖北省教育厅人文社科重点项目 (2018104960):我国稻米地位转变的原因分析及可行性对策

本校为第一机构

2004年-2015年我国粮食产量实现"十二连增",在粮食产量年年丰收、粮食进口量逐年增加的同时,我国粮食供需仍存在不平衡的状况。粮食产业供给侧改革面临粮食总量紧平衡下的"去库存""调结构""降成本"等问题。本文运用ARIMA模型,分别建立粮食需求和供给模型,并预测未来粮食的供求量,结果表明我国粮食供给量在未来几年将持续增长,粮食需求量大于供给量,粮食供需缺口现象显著。因此,为保障粮食安全,实现粮食供需平衡,应推动我国粮食产业供给侧结构性改革,在供给侧改革下完善粮食贸易调控机制,促进粮食产业供给侧和需求侧的协调发展。

China’s grain output achieved a“serial increase”from 2004 to 2015.With the increase of total grain production and imports year by year,China’s grain imbalance is very serious.The supply-side reform of the grain industry is faced with such problems as“destocking”,“adjusting”,“adjusting the structure”and“reducing the cost”under the cost”under the tight balance of quantity.In this paper,ARIMA model is used to establish the grain demand and supply models respectively and predict the future grain supply and demand.The results shows that...